Final 2025–26 NBA playoff odds for all 30 teams: record, playoff, division, and NBA title probability, archived from 82 daily Monte Carlo runs.
| Rank | Team | Record | Make Playoffs | Win Division | NBA title | Proj. wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 64-18 | 100% | 100% | 21% | 64.0 |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 62-20 | 100% | 100% | 19% | 62.0 |
| 3 | Detroit Pistons | 60-22 | 100% | 100% | 18% | 60.0 |
| 4 | New York Knicks | 53-29 | 100% | 0% | 12% | 53.0 |
| 5 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 52-30 | 100% | 0% | 9% | 52.0 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Lakers | 53-29 | 100% | 100% | 9% | 53.0 |
| 7 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 49-33 | 100% | 0% | 6% | 49.0 |
| 8 | Boston Celtics | 56-26 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 56.0 |
| 9 | Denver Nuggets | 54-28 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 54.0 |
| 10 | Houston Rockets | 52-30 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 52.0 |
| 11 | Toronto Raptors | 46-36 | 100% | 0% | 0% | 46.0 |
| 12 | Atlanta Hawks | 46-36 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 46.0 |
| 13 | Philadelphia 76ers | 45-37 | 0% | 0% | 5% | 45.0 |
| 14 | Phoenix Suns | 45-37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 45.0 |
| 15 | Orlando Magic | 45-37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 45.0 |
| 16 | Charlotte Hornets | 44-38 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 44.0 |
| 17 | Miami Heat | 43-39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 43.0 |
| 18 | Los Angeles Clippers | 42-40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 42.0 |
| 19 | Portland Trail Blazers | 42-40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 42.0 |
| 20 | Golden State Warriors | 37-45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 37.0 |
| 21 | Milwaukee Bucks | 32-50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 32.0 |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | 31-51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 31.0 |
| 23 | New Orleans Pelicans | 26-56 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 26.0 |
| 24 | Dallas Mavericks | 26-56 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 26.0 |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | 25-57 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25.0 |
| 26 | Sacramento Kings | 22-60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| 27 | Utah Jazz | 22-60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 22.0 |
| 28 | Brooklyn Nets | 20-62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 20.0 |
| 29 | Indiana Pacers | 19-63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19.0 |
| 30 | Washington Wizards | 17-65 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 17.0 |
The model ran 82 times between 2025-10-22 and 2026-06-01. Oklahoma City Thunder finished with the highest playoff probability. Select any team for its full-season odds history.
Scored against the final playoff field, the 1,108 daily team forecasts published before the field was settled had a Brier score of 0.061 (lower is better; 0 is perfect). A forecast that gave every team the same league-wide odds would have scored 0.240.
Teams published at 90% or higher made the playoffs 100% of the time; teams published under 10% made it 1% of the time.
Archived data through 2026-06-01.