How are NHL playoff probabilities calculated?

Playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are calculated using 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining NHL schedule. Each simulation uses Elo-based win probability adjusted for home ice advantage and rest. The model then applies official NHL tiebreaker rules to determine which 16 teams qualify for the playoffs in each simulation. The probability shown is the percentage of simulations in which a team makes the playoffs.

How often are NHL playoff odds updated?

NHL playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are updated every day at 5 AM ET, incorporating the previous night's game results and the latest standings.

How does the NHL wild card work?

The NHL playoffs include 16 teams: the top 3 teams from each of the four divisions, plus two wild card teams from each conference. Wild card spots go to the two non-division-winner teams in each conference with the most points. In The Playoffs tracks both division winner probability and wild card probability separately for each team.

Which NHL teams are on the playoff bubble?

Bubble teams are those with playoff probabilities between 10% and 75%. In The Playoffs shows real-time probabilities for all 32 NHL teams, making it easy to identify which teams are in danger of missing the playoffs in the 2025-26 season.

What is the Presidents' Trophy in the NHL?

The Presidents' Trophy is awarded to the NHL team with the best regular season record (most points). In The Playoffs tracks the probability of each team winning the Presidents' Trophy based on Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule.

NHL Playoff Probability 2025–26 — All 32 Teams

2025–26 NHL Playoff Probability — All 32 Teams

Team		W-L-OT	GP	REM
1 AvalancheIN Central	106	48-13-10	71	11	>99%	>99%	<1%	>99%	122.8	Easy
2 StarsIN Central	97	43-18-11	72	10	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	109.7	Avg
3 HurricanesIN Metropolitan	96	45-20-6	71	11	>99%	99%	<1%	<1%	110.1	Avg
4 WildIN Central	94	41-20-12	73	9	>99%	<1%	<1%	<1%	105.2	Avg
5 SabresIN Atlantic	96	44-21-8	73	9	>99%	46%	1%	<1%	107.5	Avg
6 DucksIN Pacific	86	41-27-4	72	10	>99%	93%	<1%	<1%	98.8	Easy
7 LightningIN Atlantic	94	44-21-6	71	11	>99%	49%	2%	<1%	107.8	Hard
8 Canadiens Atlantic	90	40-21-10	71	11	96%	4%	23%	<1%	103.1	Avg
9 Oilers Pacific	81	36-28-9	73	9	93%	5%	7%	<1%	91.6	Avg
10 Mammoth Central	80	37-30-6	73	9	90%	<1%	90%	<1%	90.8	Easy
11 Penguins Metropolitan	88	36-20-16	72	10	87%	1%	4%	<1%	99.9	Easy
12 Golden Knights Pacific	79	32-26-15	73	9	78%	1%	14%	<1%	89.7	Easy
13 Bruins Atlantic	88	40-24-8	72	10	71%	<1%	55%	<1%	99.0	Hard
14 Blue Jackets Metropolitan	87	38-23-11	72	10	70%	<1%	7%	<1%	98.4	Hard
15 Islanders Metropolitan	87	41-27-5	73	9	56%	<1%	11%	<1%	97.2	Hard
16 Senators Atlantic	86	38-24-10	72	10	55%	<1%	47%	<1%	97.4	Avg
17 Kings Pacific	76	29-25-18	72	10	51%	<1%	20%	<1%	88.0	Easy
18 Red Wings Atlantic	86	39-25-8	72	10	50%	<1%	44%	<1%	97.5	Easy
19 Predators Central	77	34-29-9	72	10	47%	<1%	47%	<1%	87.3	Hard
20 Kraken Pacific	74	32-29-10	71	11	25%	<1%	11%	<1%	85.3	Avg
21 Flyers Metropolitan	82	35-24-12	71	11	13%	<1%	5%	<1%	93.8	Avg
22 Sharks Pacific	71	32-31-7	70	12	12%	<1%	7%	<1%	84.2	Easy
23 Blues Central	71	30-30-11	71	11	3%	<1%	3%	<1%	81.5	Hard
24 Capitals Metropolitan	81	36-28-9	73	9	3%	<1%	1%	<1%	90.8	Avg
25 Jets Central	72	30-30-12	72	10	2%	<1%	2%	<1%	81.9	Avg
26 DevilsOUT Metropolitan	76	37-32-2	71	11	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	87.3	Avg
27 FlamesOUT Pacific	68	30-34-8	72	10	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	77.0	Hard
28 Maple LeafsOUT Atlantic	75	31-29-13	73	9	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	84.1	Avg
29 PanthersOUT Atlantic	73	35-33-3	71	11	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	83.9	Avg
30 RangersOUT Metropolitan	67	29-35-9	73	9	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	75.4	Avg
31 BlackhawksOUT Central	67	27-33-13	73	9	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	75.7	Easy
32 CanucksOUT Pacific	50	21-42-8	71	11	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	58.1	Hard