Question 1

How are NHL playoff probabilities calculated?

Accepted Answer

NHL playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are calculated using 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule. Each simulation uses Elo-based win probability adjusted for home ice advantage and rest. The model applies official NHL tiebreaker rules to determine which 16 teams qualify. The probability shown is the percentage of simulations in which a team makes the playoffs.

Question 2

How are NBA playoff probabilities calculated?

Accepted Answer

NBA playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are calculated using 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule. The model applies official NBA tiebreaker rules and models the Play-In Tournament (seeds 7–10 per conference) as a separate stage. The probability shown is the percentage of simulations in which a team qualifies for the playoffs.

Question 3

How often are playoff odds updated?

Accepted Answer

Playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are updated every day at 9 AM ET, incorporating the previous night's game results and the latest standings for both the NHL and NBA.

Question 4

How does the NHL wild card work?

Accepted Answer

The NHL playoffs include 16 teams: the top 3 teams from each of the four divisions, plus two wild card teams from each conference. Wild card spots go to the two non-division-winner teams in each conference with the most points. In The Playoffs tracks both division winner probability and wild card probability separately for each team.

Question 5

How does the NBA Play-In Tournament work?

Accepted Answer

The NBA Play-In Tournament determines the 7th and 8th playoff seeds in each conference. The 7 vs 8 seed play — the winner gets the 7 seed. The 9 vs 10 seed play — the loser is eliminated. Then the losers of 7v8 and winners of 9v10 play for the final playoff spot. In The Playoffs models this entire Play-In stage in its simulations.

Question 6

Which teams are on the playoff bubble?

Accepted Answer

Bubble teams are those with playoff probabilities between 10% and 75%. In The Playoffs shows real-time probabilities for all 32 NHL teams and all 30 NBA teams, making it easy to identify which teams are in danger of missing the playoffs in the 2025-26 season.

Team		W-L-OT	GP	REM
1 AvalancheIN Central	119	54-16-11	81	1	>99% ±0.0%	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	>99% ±0.0%	120.6	Easy
2 HurricanesIN Metropolitan	113	53-22-7	82	0	>99% ±0.0%	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	113.0	Easy
3 StarsIN Central	112	50-20-12	82	0	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	112.0	Easy
4 SabresIN Atlantic	109	50-23-9	82	0	>99% ±0.0%	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	109.0	Easy
5 CanadiensIN Atlantic	106	48-24-10	82	0	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	106.0	Easy
6 LightningIN Atlantic	106	50-26-6	82	0	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	106.0	Easy
7 WildIN Central	104	46-24-12	82	0	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	104.0	Easy
8 BruinsIN Atlantic	100	45-27-10	82	0	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	100.0	Easy
9 SenatorsIN Atlantic	99	44-27-11	82	0	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	99.0	Easy
10 PenguinsIN Metropolitan	98	41-25-16	82	0	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	98.0	Easy
11 FlyersIN Metropolitan	98	43-27-12	82	0	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	98.0	Easy
12 Golden KnightsIN Pacific	95	39-26-17	82	0	>99% ±0.0%	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	95.0	Easy
13 MammothIN Central	92	43-32-6	81	1	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	93.3	Easy
14 OilersIN Pacific	91	40-30-11	81	1	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	5% ±0.3%	<1% ±0.0%	92.6	Easy
15 KingsIN Pacific	90	35-26-20	81	1	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	62% ±0.6%	<1% ±0.0%	91.2	Easy
16 DucksIN Pacific	90	42-33-6	81	1	>99% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	34% ±0.6%	<1% ±0.0%	91.1	Easy
17 CapitalsOUT Metropolitan	95	43-30-9	82	0	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	95.0	Easy
18 Red WingsOUT Atlantic	92	41-31-10	82	0	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	92.0	Easy
19 Blue JacketsOUT Metropolitan	92	40-30-12	82	0	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	92.0	Easy
20 IslandersOUT Metropolitan	91	43-34-5	82	0	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	91.0	Easy
21 DevilsOUT Metropolitan	87	42-37-3	82	0	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	87.0	Easy
22 PredatorsOUT Central	86	38-33-10	81	1	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	87.2	Hard
23 PanthersOUT Atlantic	84	40-38-4	82	0	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	84.0	Easy
24 BluesOUT Central	84	36-33-12	81	1	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	84.9	Hard
25 SharksOUT Pacific	84	38-35-8	81	1	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	85.0	Easy
26 JetsOUT Central	82	35-34-12	81	1	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	83.2	Easy
27 KrakenOUT Pacific	79	34-36-11	81	1	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	79.6	Hard
28 Maple LeafsOUT Atlantic	78	32-36-14	82	0	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	78.0	Easy
29 RangersOUT Metropolitan	77	34-39-9	82	0	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	77.0	Easy
30 FlamesOUT Pacific	75	33-39-9	81	1	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	76.0	Hard
31 BlackhawksOUT Central	72	29-39-14	82	0	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	72.0	Easy
32 CanucksOUT Pacific	58	25-48-8	81	1	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	<1% ±0.0%	58.7	Hard

2025–26 NHL Playoff Probability — All 32 Teams