How every NHL team's playoff probability has moved across the 2025–26 season. Each morning's simulation is stored, so these are real changes in the model's output rather than a recalculated guess — the tables below show the teams that gained and lost the most playoff probability since we began tracking this season.
| Team | Since 2025-10-15 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Senators | <1% | >99% | +100 pts |
| Buffalo Sabres | 1% | >99% | +99 pts |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 1% | >99% | +99 pts |
| Utah Mammoth | 2% | >99% | +98 pts |
| Los Angeles Kings | <1% | 82% | +82 pts |
| Philadelphia Flyers | <1% | 77% | +77 pts |
| Minnesota Wild | 40% | >99% | +60 pts |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 41% | >99% | +59 pts |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 57% | >99% | +43 pts |
| Anaheim Ducks | 81% | 93% | +12 pts |
| Team | Since 2025-10-15 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Red Wings | >99% | <1% | −100 pts |
| Winnipeg Jets | >99% | <1% | −99 pts |
| New York Rangers | 92% | <1% | −92 pts |
| St. Louis Blues | 89% | <1% | −89 pts |
| Seattle Kraken | 85% | <1% | −85 pts |
| Washington Capitals | >99% | 16% | −84 pts |
| New Jersey Devils | 72% | <1% | −72 pts |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 60% | <1% | −60 pts |
| Florida Panthers | 30% | <1% | −30 pts |
| Nashville Predators | 38% | 24% | −14 pts |
Movement is measured between stored simulation runs · data through 2026-06-01. How the odds are calculated.