How every NHL team's playoff probability has moved across the 2026–27 season. Each morning's simulation is stored, so these are real changes in the model's output rather than a recalculated guess — the tables below show the teams that gained and lost the most playoff probability since we began tracking this season.
| Team | Since 2026-10-02 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carolina Hurricanes | 65% | 95% | +30 pts |
| Edmonton Oilers | 63% | 89% | +26 pts |
| Boston Bruins | 61% | 82% | +21 pts |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 60% | 81% | +21 pts |
| Minnesota Wild | 71% | 91% | +19 pts |
| Vegas Golden Knights | 69% | 85% | +16 pts |
| Washington Capitals | 55% | 70% | +15 pts |
| New York Islanders | 35% | 47% | +12 pts |
| Seattle Kraken | 53% | 63% | +10 pts |
| New Jersey Devils | 41% | 49% | +7 pts |
| Team | Since 2026-10-02 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 54% | 23% | −31 pts |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 68% | 37% | −30 pts |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 34% | 8% | −26 pts |
| Anaheim Ducks | 51% | 32% | −19 pts |
| Winnipeg Jets | 40% | 21% | −18 pts |
| Vancouver Canucks | 18% | 2% | −16 pts |
| Calgary Flames | 26% | 13% | −13 pts |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 15% | 4% | −11 pts |
| Buffalo Sabres | 56% | 46% | −10 pts |
| Detroit Red Wings | 36% | 27% | −9 pts |
Movement is measured between stored simulation runs · data through 2026-10-29. How the odds are calculated.