Every morning at 9 AM ET we simulate the rest of the NHL, NBA, MLB, and NFL regular seasons 100,000 times each and count how often every team qualifies for the postseason. That share of simulations is the team's playoff probability. Nothing on this site is a human opinion or a betting market price — it is the output of a model whose inputs and error rates we publish in full.
Each team gets a strength rating derived from what it has actually done this season: goals scored and allowed in the NHL, offensive and defensive efficiency in the NBA, runs scored and allowed in MLB, and points scored and allowed in the NFL. Ratings are adjusted for strength of schedule so a record built against weak opponents is not mistaken for genuine quality.
For each remaining game on the real schedule, the model converts the two teams' ratings into a win probability, applies the league's home-ice, home-court, or home-field advantage, then flips a weighted coin. NHL games that reach overtime are resolved separately so that the loser point is awarded correctly.
After 100,000 completed seasons, a team that made the playoffs in 78,412 of them is reported at 78.4%. The same run produces division, wild card, conference, and championship probabilities as a dated historical snapshot.
Because the schedule shrinks every day, probabilities naturally harden toward 0% or 100% as the season progresses. Large single-day swings almost always reflect a result that mattered — a head-to-head game between rivals for the same spot — rather than a change in the model.
These providers supply raw regular-season inputs. In The Playoffs independently calculates the probabilities published on this site.
By simulating every remaining regular-season game 100,000 times using team strength ratings and home advantage, applying each league's real playoff and tiebreaker rules, and reporting the share of simulations in which a team qualifies.
Every morning at 9 AM ET, incorporating all games played the previous day. Each update is a full re-run of 100,000 simulations, not an adjustment of the previous day's numbers.
Late in a season each game carries more weight because fewer games remain to offset it. A head-to-head result between two teams competing for the same spot moves both teams twice — once for the winner, once for the loser.
No. These are model-generated probabilities from simulated seasons. They are not derived from sportsbook lines and are published for informational purposes.
Simulations run nightly at 9 AM ET with current standings and schedule data.