How It Works

Every probability on this site is the result of simulating the rest of the NHL season thousands of times. Each simulation plays out every remaining regular-season game, applies the official NHL tiebreaker rules, and records which teams make the playoffs. The probabilities you see are simply the percentage of simulations in which each team qualified.

Running the season thousands of times — rather than just once — captures the full range of outcomes that could realistically happen. A team with a 70% probability did not make the playoffs in roughly 30% of simulations, reflecting the genuine uncertainty that remains in the standings.

For each remaining game, the model estimates the probability that the home team or visiting team wins. These estimates account for the relative strength of the two teams and the well-documented home-ice advantage in the NHL.

Team strength is derived from season-long performance data — how efficiently teams score and prevent goals relative to the league average. Stronger teams are more likely to win any given game, but upsets are always possible, and the model reflects that.

NHL games that are tied after regulation proceed to overtime and, if necessary, a shootout. The model handles this two-step resolution: first determining whether a game goes to overtime, then determining the winner. This matters for standings because overtime losses earn a team one point rather than zero.

After simulating all remaining games, the model tallies each team's final points total and applies the official NHL playoff qualification rules: the top three teams in each of the four divisions earn automatic berths, and the next two highest-point teams in each conference earn wild card spots.

When teams finish with identical point totals, the model applies the NHL's official tiebreaker sequence — regulation wins, then head-to-head record, then goals scored — to determine seeding and wild card eligibility, exactly as the league would.

Probabilities are recalculated every morning using the previous night's final scores. The standings data and remaining schedule are refreshed at the same time, so the numbers always reflect the most recent completed games.

The "Data through" date shown in the footer of each page indicates the last date of games included in the current calculation.

A probability of >99% means the team made the playoffs in essentially every simulation — they are effectively clinched, though mathematically not yet official. A probability of <1% means the team made the playoffs in almost no simulations — elimination is effectively certain.

Probabilities between those extremes reflect genuine uncertainty. A team at 55% is in a true coin-flip situation; small swings in results over the next few weeks will move their number significantly.

The Projected Points figure is the average final point total across all simulations — a useful single-number summary of where a team is likely to finish, though the actual outcome will vary.