Question 1

How are NHL playoff probabilities calculated?

Accepted Answer

NHL playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are calculated using 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule. Each simulation uses Elo-based win probability adjusted for home ice advantage and rest. The model applies official NHL tiebreaker rules to determine which 16 teams qualify. The probability shown is the percentage of simulations in which a team makes the playoffs.

Question 2

How are NBA playoff probabilities calculated?

Accepted Answer

NBA playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are calculated using 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule. The model applies official NBA tiebreaker rules and models the Play-In Tournament (seeds 7–10 per conference) as a separate stage. The probability shown is the percentage of simulations in which a team qualifies for the playoffs.

Question 3

How often are playoff odds updated?

Accepted Answer

Playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are updated every day at 9 AM ET, incorporating the previous night's game results and the latest standings for both the NHL and NBA.

Question 4

How does the NHL wild card work?

Accepted Answer

The NHL playoffs include 16 teams: the top 3 teams from each of the four divisions, plus two wild card teams from each conference. Wild card spots go to the two non-division-winner teams in each conference with the most points. In The Playoffs tracks both division winner probability and wild card probability separately for each team.

Question 5

How does the NBA Play-In Tournament work?

Accepted Answer

The NBA Play-In Tournament determines the 7th and 8th playoff seeds in each conference. The 7 vs 8 seed play — the winner gets the 7 seed. The 9 vs 10 seed play — the loser is eliminated. Then the losers of 7v8 and winners of 9v10 play for the final playoff spot. In The Playoffs models this entire Play-In stage in its simulations.

Question 6

Which teams are on the playoff bubble?

Accepted Answer

Bubble teams are those with playoff probabilities between 10% and 75%. In The Playoffs shows real-time probabilities for all 32 NHL teams and all 30 NBA teams, making it easy to identify which teams are in danger of missing the playoffs in the 2025-26 season.

Team		W-L	GP	REM
1 Dodgers NL West	13	13-4	17	145	66% ±0.6%	42% ±0.6%	24% ±0.5%	7% ±0.3%	85.1
2 Twins AL Central	11	11-7	18	144	55% ±0.6%	33% ±0.6%	22% ±0.5%	5% ±0.3%	82.5
3 Padres NL West	11	11-6	17	145	52% ±0.6%	25% ±0.5%	27% ±0.5%	6% ±0.3%	83.3
4 Braves NL East	11	11-7	18	144	48% ±0.6%	26% ±0.5%	22% ±0.5%	6% ±0.3%	82.1
5 Guardians AL Central	10	10-8	18	144	48% ±0.6%	25% ±0.5%	23% ±0.5%	4% ±0.2%	81.6
6 Athletics AL West	9	9-8	17	145	48% ±0.6%	28% ±0.6%	20% ±0.5%	3% ±0.2%	81.7
7 Yankees AL East	9	9-8	17	145	47% ±0.6%	25% ±0.5%	23% ±0.5%	5% ±0.3%	81.1
8 Rays AL East	9	9-7	16	146	47% ±0.6%	23% ±0.5%	24% ±0.5%	4% ±0.2%	81.3
9 Orioles AL East	9	9-8	17	145	47% ±0.6%	25% ±0.5%	22% ±0.5%	4% ±0.3%	81.0
10 Pirates NL Central	10	10-7	17	145	47% ±0.6%	24% ±0.5%	22% ±0.5%	5% ±0.3%	82.0
11 Reds NL Central	10	10-7	17	145	46% ±0.6%	23% ±0.5%	23% ±0.5%	2% ±0.2%	82.0
12 $Rangers$ Rangers AL West	9	9-8	17	145	45% ±0.6%	23% ±0.5%	22% ±0.5%	5% ±0.3%	81.5
13 Diamondbacks NL West	10	10-8	18	144	42% ±0.6%	18% ±0.5%	24% ±0.5%	3% ±0.2%	81.6
14 Cardinals NL Central	9	9-8	17	145	41% ±0.6%	21% ±0.5%	20% ±0.5%	2% ±0.2%	81.0
15 Marlins NL East	9	9-9	18	144	40% ±0.6%	21% ±0.5%	20% ±0.5%	4% ±0.2%	80.8
16 Angels AL West	9	9-9	18	144	40% ±0.6%	21% ±0.5%	20% ±0.5%	4% ±0.2%	80.7
17 Tigers AL Central	8	8-9	17	145	39% ±0.6%	18% ±0.5%	20% ±0.5%	4% ±0.2%	80.2
18 Nationals NL East	8	8-9	17	145	37% ±0.6%	19% ±0.5%	18% ±0.5%	3% ±0.2%	80.2
19 Brewers NL Central	8	8-8	16	146	37% ±0.6%	18% ±0.5%	19% ±0.5%	4% ±0.2%	80.4
20 Phillies NL East	8	8-9	17	145	36% ±0.6%	19% ±0.5%	17% ±0.5%	2% ±0.2%	79.9
21 Mariners AL West	8	8-10	18	144	35% ±0.6%	16% ±0.5%	19% ±0.5%	4% ±0.2%	79.8
22 Blue Jays AL East	7	7-9	16	146	35% ±0.6%	15% ±0.4%	20% ±0.5%	2% ±0.2%	79.2
23 Cubs NL Central	8	8-9	17	145	33% ±0.6%	14% ±0.4%	19% ±0.5%	3% ±0.2%	80.0
24 Royals AL Central	7	7-10	17	145	31% ±0.6%	13% ±0.4%	18% ±0.5%	2% ±0.2%	78.9
25 Mets NL East	7	7-11	18	144	31% ±0.6%	15% ±0.4%	16% ±0.5%	2% ±0.2%	79.1
26 Astros AL West	7	7-11	18	144	28% ±0.6%	12% ±0.4%	16% ±0.5%	2% ±0.2%	78.9
27 Red Sox AL East	6	6-11	17	145	28% ±0.6%	12% ±0.4%	16% ±0.5%	2% ±0.2%	78.0
28 White Sox AL Central	6	6-11	17	145	26% ±0.5%	10% ±0.4%	15% ±0.4%	1% ±0.1%	78.0
29 Rockies NL West	6	6-11	17	145	23% ±0.5%	8% ±0.3%	14% ±0.4%	2% ±0.2%	78.3
30 Giants NL West	6	6-11	17	145	21% ±0.5%	7% ±0.3%	14% ±0.4%	1% ±0.1%	77.9

2026 MLB Playoff Probability — All 30 Teams