How every MLB team's playoff probability has moved across the 2026 season. Each morning's simulation is stored, so these are real changes in the model's output rather than a recalculated guess — the tables below show the teams that gained and lost the most playoff probability since we began tracking this season.
| Team | Since 2026-03-27 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | <1% | >99% | +100 pts |
| Cubs | <1% | 96% | +96 pts |
| Astros | <1% | 84% | +84 pts |
| White Sox | <1% | 83% | +83 pts |
| Padres | <1% | 53% | +53 pts |
| D-backs | <1% | 51% | +51 pts |
| Phillies | 56% | 98% | +42 pts |
| Braves | 60% | >99% | +40 pts |
| Guardians | 20% | 56% | +36 pts |
| Rangers | <1% | 21% | +21 pts |
| Team | Since 2026-03-27 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | 99% | <1% | −99 pts |
| Angels | 99% | <1% | −99 pts |
| Cardinals | 90% | <1% | −90 pts |
| Orioles | 87% | 6% | −80 pts |
| Nationals | 73% | <1% | −73 pts |
| Marlins | 71% | <1% | −71 pts |
| Mets | 60% | <1% | −60 pts |
| Blue Jays | 94% | 45% | −49 pts |
| Mariners | 18% | 3% | −15 pts |
Movement is measured between stored simulation runs · data through 2026-09-11. How the odds are calculated.