How every MLB team's playoff probability has moved across the 2026 season. Each morning's simulation is stored, so these are real changes in the model's output rather than a recalculated guess — the tables below show the teams that gained and lost the most playoff probability since we began tracking this season.
| Team | Since 2026-03-27 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | <1% | >99% | +100 pts |
| Cubs | <1% | >99% | +100 pts |
| Padres | <1% | >99% | +100 pts |
| White Sox | <1% | >99% | +100 pts |
| Astros | <1% | >99% | +100 pts |
| Guardians | 20% | >99% | +80 pts |
| Phillies | 56% | >99% | +44 pts |
| Braves | 60% | >99% | +40 pts |
| Red Sox | 89% | >99% | +11 pts |
| Brewers | 90% | >99% | +10 pts |
| Team | Since 2026-03-27 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | 99% | <1% | −99 pts |
| Angels | 99% | <1% | −99 pts |
| Blue Jays | 94% | <1% | −94 pts |
| Cardinals | 90% | <1% | −90 pts |
| Orioles | 87% | <1% | −87 pts |
| Nationals | 73% | <1% | −73 pts |
| Marlins | 71% | <1% | −71 pts |
| Mets | 60% | <1% | −60 pts |
| Mariners | 18% | <1% | −18 pts |
Movement is measured between stored simulation runs · data through 2026-10-30. How the odds are calculated.