How every NBA team's playoff probability has moved across the 2025–26 season. Each morning's simulation is stored, so these are real changes in the model's output rather than a recalculated guess — the tables below show the teams that gained and lost the most playoff probability since we began tracking this season.
| Team | Since 2025-10-22 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | 18% | >99% | +82 pts |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 20% | >99% | +80 pts |
| Atlanta Hawks | 6% | 85% | +79 pts |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 25% | >99% | +75 pts |
| Houston Rockets | 31% | >99% | +69 pts |
| Detroit Pistons | 34% | >99% | +66 pts |
| Denver Nuggets | 64% | >99% | +36 pts |
| New York Knicks | 70% | >99% | +30 pts |
| San Antonio Spurs | 72% | >99% | +28 pts |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 73% | >99% | +27 pts |
| Team | Since 2025-10-22 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 71% | <1% | −71 pts |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 70% | <1% | −70 pts |
| Charlotte Hornets | 69% | <1% | −69 pts |
| Chicago Bulls | 68% | <1% | −68 pts |
| Phoenix Suns | 67% | <1% | −67 pts |
| Utah Jazz | 67% | <1% | −67 pts |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 62% | <1% | −62 pts |
| Golden State Warriors | 59% | <1% | −59 pts |
| Orlando Magic | 74% | 27% | −47 pts |
| Dallas Mavericks | 19% | <1% | −19 pts |
Movement is measured between stored simulation runs · data through 2026-06-01. How the odds are calculated.