The Buffalo Bills have a 87% chance to make the 2026 NFL playoffs with a 5-1 record in the AFC East. Win Division: 61% · Wild Card: 25% · First-Round Bye: 22% · Super Bowl: 8%. Updated daily via 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Make Playoffs | 87% |
| Win Division | 61% |
| Wild Card | 25% |
| First-Round Bye | 22% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 15% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 8% |
The Buffalo Bills lead the AFC East at 5-1 with 11 games left to play, and hold the AFC's No. 2 seed as things stand.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Place in the AFC East | 1st |
| Place in the AFC | 2nd |
| Current playoff seed | No. 2 |
| Games remaining | 11 |
| Point differential | +26 |
The Buffalo Bills are 5-1 through 6 games of the 2026 season, with 11 games remaining. Their current playoff outlook is a 87% chance to make the playoffs, 61% to win the division, 25% as a Wild Card, 22% for a first-round bye, and 8% to win the Super Bowl.
Through 6 games, the Buffalo Bills have a 5-1 record. The model currently projects 11 wins, based on 100,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
The Buffalo Bills can improve their postseason position by converting the remaining schedule into wins. Current model probabilities are a 87% chance to make the playoffs, 61% to win the division, 25% as a Wild Card, 22% for a first-round bye, and 8% to win the Super Bowl; these figures will update after the next simulation run.
According to our Monte Carlo simulation model (updated 2026-10-30), the Buffalo Bills have a 87% chance to make the 2026 NFL playoffs. Their current record is 5-1. Win Division probability: 61%. Wild Card probability: 25%. Super Bowl probability: 8%.
The Buffalo Bills 2026 NFL playoff odds: Make Playoffs 87%, Win the AFC East 61%, Wild Card 25%, First-Round Bye 22%, Super Bowl 8%. These odds are calculated daily using 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule.
The Buffalo Bills lead the AFC East at 5-1 with 11 games left to play, and hold the AFC's No. 2 seed as things stand.
The Buffalo Bills have a 22% chance of earning the AFC's No. 1 seed as of 2026-10-30. That top seed is the only first-round bye in the conference — every other playoff team, seeds 2 through 7, plays on wild card weekend.
Probabilities generated via 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule · updated daily at 9 AM ET · data through 2026-10-30. How it works.