NFL Playoff Odds 2026

Live NFL playoff odds for all 32 teams, updated every morning from 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of every remaining game in the 2026 season. The table below shows each team's chance to reach the seven-team conference field, win its division, and earn the conference's only first-round bye — click any team for a full breakdown.

NFL Playoff Odds as of Oct 30, 2026
RankTeamRecordMake PlayoffsWin Division1st-Rd Bye
1San Francisco 49ers6-194%74%34%
2Minnesota Vikings6-093%64%40%
3Jacksonville Jaguars4-290%85%17%
4Kansas City Chiefs5-187%59%21%
5Buffalo Bills5-187%61%22%
6Denver Broncos5-278%38%12%
7Cincinnati Bengals4-278%42%11%
8New England Patriots4-375%37%7%
9Seattle Seahawks4-373%22%6%
10Pittsburgh Steelers5-268%30%6%
11Chicago Bears5-268%14%7%
12Detroit Lions4-261%16%7%
13New York Giants4-2-158%54%2%
14Green Bay Packers5-352%6%2%
15Cleveland Browns5-250%19%2%
16Atlanta Falcons3-438%34%<1%
17Dallas Cowboys3-436%31%<1%
18Baltimore Ravens4-335%8%1%
19Los Angeles Rams3-433%5%1%
20Tampa Bay Buccaneers2-532%29%<1%
21Carolina Panthers3-429%26%<1%
22Houston Texans2-521%9%<1%
23Las Vegas Raiders3-413%3%<1%
24New Orleans Saints2-513%11%<1%
25Indianapolis Colts2-510%6%<1%
26Philadelphia Eagles2-59%8%<1%
27Washington Commanders1-4-19%7%<1%
28New York Jets2-56%1%<1%
29Arizona Cardinals2-52%<1%<1%
30Miami Dolphins1-52%1%<1%
31Los Angeles Chargers0-61%<1%<1%
32Tennessee Titans1-61%<1%<1%

Odds are recalculated every morning at 9 AM ET from 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of each team's remaining schedule. Read the full methodology.

Power RankingsOdds TrendsAll Teams

Frequently Asked Questions

How are NFL playoff odds calculated?

NFL playoff odds on In The Playoffs are calculated by running 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining regular season schedule every day. Each simulation uses an opponent-adjusted team strength rating (built from point differential and regressed toward a preseason projection), home-field advantage, and the current standings to project every remaining game — including the possibility of a tie — then applies the real seeding rules to each simulated season. The percentage of simulations in which a team reaches the postseason is its playoff probability.

How many teams make the NFL playoffs?

14 teams make the NFL playoffs each season — 7 from the AFC and 7 from the NFC. Each conference sends its 4 division winners, who take seeds 1 through 4, plus the 3 non-division-winners with the best records, who take seeds 5 through 7 as wild cards.

Which NFL teams get a first-round bye?

Only the No. 1 seed in each conference gets a first-round bye. Since the field expanded to 14 teams in 2020, seeds 2 through 7 all play on wild card weekend, which makes the top seed the single most valuable position in the bracket.

Which NFL teams are most likely to make the playoffs in 2026?

The NFL playoff odds for all 32 teams in the 2026 season are updated daily on In The Playoffs. Teams with the highest playoff probability are typically division leaders and wild card contenders in each conference. Visit the NFL playoff odds page for the latest probabilities, updated every morning at 9 AM ET.

How often are NFL playoff odds updated?

NFL playoff odds on In The Playoffs are updated every morning at 9 AM ET, incorporating all games played the previous day. Because the NFL plays weekly rather than nightly, the numbers move most between Sunday night and Tuesday morning, once the full slate — including Monday Night Football — is final.

Data through 2026-10-30.