How every NFL team's playoff probability has moved across the 2026 season. Each morning's simulation is stored, so these are real changes in the model's output rather than a recalculated guess — the tables below show the teams that gained and lost the most playoff probability since we began tracking this season.
| Team | Since 2026-09-15 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 10% | 78% | +68 pts |
| New England Patriots | 9% | 75% | +65 pts |
| Cleveland Browns | 13% | 50% | +37 pts |
| Green Bay Packers | 16% | 52% | +36 pts |
| Los Angeles Rams | 9% | 33% | +24 pts |
| San Francisco 49ers | 71% | 94% | +23 pts |
| Minnesota Vikings | 71% | 93% | +22 pts |
| Dallas Cowboys | 17% | 36% | +20 pts |
| Buffalo Bills | 69% | 87% | +17 pts |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 75% | 87% | +12 pts |
| Team | Since 2026-09-15 | Now | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 75% | 6% | −69 pts |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 76% | 13% | −62 pts |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 67% | 9% | −57 pts |
| Arizona Cardinals | 58% | 2% | −56 pts |
| Baltimore Ravens | 77% | 35% | −43 pts |
| New York Giants | 76% | 58% | −18 pts |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 11% | 1% | −11 pts |
| Tennessee Titans | 11% | 1% | −11 pts |
| New Orleans Saints | 21% | 13% | −8 pts |
| Miami Dolphins | 9% | 2% | −7 pts |
Movement is measured between stored simulation runs · data through 2026-10-30. How the odds are calculated.