The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 90% chance to make the 2026 NFL playoffs with a 4-2 record in the AFC South. Win Division: 85% · Wild Card: 5% · First-Round Bye: 17% · Super Bowl: 12%. Updated daily via 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Make Playoffs | 90% |
| Win Division | 85% |
| Wild Card | 5% |
| First-Round Bye | 17% |
| Reach the Super Bowl | 21% |
| Win the Super Bowl | 12% |
The Jacksonville Jaguars lead the AFC South at 4-2 with 11 games left to play, and hold the AFC's No. 4 seed as things stand.
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Place in the AFC South | 1st |
| Place in the AFC | 6th |
| Current playoff seed | No. 4 |
| Games remaining | 11 |
| Point differential | +50 |
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 4-2 through 6 games of the 2026 season, with 11 games remaining. Their current playoff outlook is a 90% chance to make the playoffs, 85% to win the division, 5% as a Wild Card, 17% for a first-round bye, and 12% to win the Super Bowl.
Through 6 games, the Jacksonville Jaguars have a 4-2 record. The model currently projects 11 wins, based on 100,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.
The Jacksonville Jaguars can improve their postseason position by converting the remaining schedule into wins. Current model probabilities are a 90% chance to make the playoffs, 85% to win the division, 5% as a Wild Card, 17% for a first-round bye, and 12% to win the Super Bowl; these figures will update after the next simulation run.
According to our Monte Carlo simulation model (updated 2026-10-30), the Jacksonville Jaguars have a 90% chance to make the 2026 NFL playoffs. Their current record is 4-2. Win Division probability: 85%. Wild Card probability: 5%. Super Bowl probability: 12%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars 2026 NFL playoff odds: Make Playoffs 90%, Win the AFC South 85%, Wild Card 5%, First-Round Bye 17%, Super Bowl 12%. These odds are calculated daily using 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule.
The Jacksonville Jaguars lead the AFC South at 4-2 with 11 games left to play, and hold the AFC's No. 4 seed as things stand.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 17% chance of earning the AFC's No. 1 seed as of 2026-10-30. That top seed is the only first-round bye in the conference — every other playoff team, seeds 2 through 7, plays on wild card weekend.
Probabilities generated via 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule · updated daily at 9 AM ET · data through 2026-10-30. How it works.