Question 1

How are NHL playoff probabilities calculated?

Accepted Answer

NHL playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are calculated using 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule. Each simulation uses Elo-based win probability adjusted for home ice advantage and rest. The model applies official NHL tiebreaker rules to determine which 16 teams qualify. The probability shown is the percentage of simulations in which a team makes the playoffs.

Question 2

How are NBA playoff probabilities calculated?

Accepted Answer

NBA playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are calculated using 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule. The model applies official NBA tiebreaker rules and models the Play-In Tournament (seeds 7–10 per conference) as a separate stage. The probability shown is the percentage of simulations in which a team qualifies for the playoffs.

Question 3

How often are playoff odds updated?

Accepted Answer

Playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are updated every day at 9 AM ET, incorporating the previous night's game results and the latest standings for both the NHL and NBA.

Question 4

How does the NHL wild card work?

Accepted Answer

The NHL playoffs include 16 teams: the top 3 teams from each of the four divisions, plus two wild card teams from each conference. Wild card spots go to the two non-division-winner teams in each conference with the most points. In The Playoffs tracks both division winner probability and wild card probability separately for each team.

Question 5

How does the NBA Play-In Tournament work?

Accepted Answer

The NBA Play-In Tournament determines the 7th and 8th playoff seeds in each conference. The 7 vs 8 seed play — the winner gets the 7 seed. The 9 vs 10 seed play — the loser is eliminated. Then the losers of 7v8 and winners of 9v10 play for the final playoff spot. In The Playoffs models this entire Play-In stage in its simulations.

Question 6

Which teams are on the playoff bubble?

Accepted Answer

Bubble teams are those with playoff probabilities between 10% and 75%. In The Playoffs shows real-time probabilities for all 32 NHL teams, all 30 NBA teams, and all 30 MLB teams, making it easy to identify which teams are in danger of missing the playoffs.

Team	W	L	W%	Playoffs
Oklahoma City Thunder	64	18	0.780	>99%
Denver Nuggets	54	28	0.659	>99%
Minnesota Timberwolves	49	33	0.598	>99%
Portland Trail Blazers	42	40	0.512	<1%
Utah Jazz	22	60	0.268	<1%

Utah Jazz

Utah Jazz

Probability Trend

Northwest Division

Utah Jazz 2025–26 Playoff Outlook

Season Narrative

What Needs to Happen

Frequently Asked Questions