Question 1

How are NHL playoff probabilities calculated?

Accepted Answer

Playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are calculated using 25,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining NHL schedule. Each simulation uses Elo-based win probability adjusted for home ice advantage and rest. The model then applies official NHL tiebreaker rules to determine which 16 teams qualify for the playoffs in each simulation. The probability shown is the percentage of simulations in which a team makes the playoffs.

Question 2

How often are NHL playoff odds updated?

Accepted Answer

NHL playoff probabilities on In The Playoffs are updated every day at 5 AM ET, incorporating the previous night's game results and the latest standings.

Question 3

How does the NHL wild card work?

Accepted Answer

The NHL playoffs include 16 teams: the top 3 teams from each of the four divisions, plus two wild card teams from each conference. Wild card spots go to the two non-division-winner teams in each conference with the most points. In The Playoffs tracks both division winner probability and wild card probability separately for each team.

Question 4

Which NHL teams are on the playoff bubble?

Accepted Answer

Bubble teams are those with playoff probabilities between 10% and 75%. In The Playoffs shows real-time probabilities for all 32 NHL teams, making it easy to identify which teams are in danger of missing the playoffs in the 2025-26 season.

Question 5

What is the Presidents' Trophy in the NHL?

Accepted Answer

The Presidents' Trophy is awarded to the NHL team with the best regular season record (most points). In The Playoffs tracks the probability of each team winning the Presidents' Trophy based on Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining schedule.

Team	W	L	W%	Playoffs
San Antonio Spurs	55	18	0.753	>99%
Houston Rockets	44	29	0.603	99%
New Orleans Pelicans	25	50	0.333	<1%
Memphis Grizzlies	24	49	0.329	<1%
Dallas Mavericks	24	50	0.324	<1%

Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis Grizzlies

Probability Trend

Southwest Division